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Thursday, 2 July 2015

Greek Referendum: When NO cannot but mean...YES in the era of the EU

Part One

Every single official lobby group Business, Farmers, Hoteliers, Lawyers, Greek TUC, Mayors, celebrities all ex Prime Ministers ex Generals are all for a YES vote. Since the MoU with the Troika all we had was YES votes bar Syriza s electoral success. Now Junquer, Merkel, Schauble, Djsselbloum etc are for a YES vote. The overwhelming majority of the tv networks owned by shipowners and Greek oligarchs.

The pro EU crowd are running an Armageddon agenda ie if its NO we want out of the EU EZ and return to the Drachma. The economic armageddon is already here this is a continuation of it.

The rupture of monetary union with the emergence of capital controls (2nd time in 3 years) after €50b was removed since Syriza came to power, was an organised event timed to get worse once Syriza s agreement with the Troika expired. This fits nicely with June which since 2010 has always been marked with political developments:
2011-Squares Movement
2012-Double Elections
2013-Closure of ERT
2014-Euroelections
2015-Referendum
one gets the feeling this whole Referendum has been organised to get people to agree to a new round of cuts.

Syriza's 47 page document  €8b cuts package...
When it was revealed Syriza wanted to cut a deal with the Troika involving €8b cuts a debate occurred inside the CC of the party and the overwhelming majority were against. Syriza s parliamentary deputies would vote it down. Syriza would have lose power. Tsipras pulled the rabbit out of the referendum hat in such a manner where he didn't close the banks until the weekend was over hemorrhaging cash flows. Once the ECB refused to increase ELA capital controls were introduced. Scenes of pensioners waiting in the midday sun to withdraw their pensions does not aid Syriza.

Irish Referendum
Tsipras has mentioned the Irish Referendum twice. If a NO vote occurs and then an agreement is signed a new Referendum may occur to ratify the Agreement bypassing parliamentary votes. The irony of the situation was that Syriza was elected on an anti cuts package and to cut all ties with the Troika and now they are trying to push it onto the people. So in reality this NO vote does not have the meaning its meant to have. We are pawns in an EU game. But a NO vote is a class vote. Its against the EU, against capitalism, against austerity. A big NO vote weakens both Syriza and the EU. A marginal NO vote increases Syriza s bargaining power. A YES vote weakens Syriza.

KKE abstentions in the service of the Troika.
The alleged anti EU force which only remembers NATO when talking about Syriza not when it governed with ND and PASOK voted against the setting up of the Referendum and will spoil their ballot papers on Sunday. Its members will probably refuse to follow along this line. They came out with a classic that whatever currency Greece has unless socialism is inaugurated it will be bad. So bad that their secretary has met all the leaders if the bankrupt pro EU parties, Dimar, PASOK, Potami...Can the KKE get any lower..?

Part Two
Syriza s 6 Months in Power
When during the elections Syriza member Tolios stated we would stop all payments to creditors what happened in practice as in Greece as in most countries you are what you declare not what you do... Between €7.5-11b was paid to foreign bloodsuckers. No debt was cancelled no MoU were ripped up. None of the core elements of Syriza s Thessalonikis programme was implemented (€12k minimum tax threshold, end of property taxes, humanitarian intervention) So why despite the previous 90 year history of the Greek Left did they fight for power. We will soon find out.

But in the short term without having Grexit on the table one can't really negotiate and when one states one can end austerity within the framework of the EU who are they kidding? If it could be ended it would have been. The topic is presented as a policy choice. The oligarchic elites can't resolve the basic contradiction of capitalism ie capitalist monopolies and impoverished workers.
The whole discussion in Greece is about cuts to pay debts and reduce wages and pensions to ...Bulgarian wages...then once achieved to...Bangladeshi ones.


A NO vote has a deeper meaning. Its an anti EU vote. The EU's infrastructure is originally flawed. We have nation states questioning its core principles. Grexit occurs under capital controls which threatens freedom of movement of capital. Brexit under conditions of questioning the freedom of movement of people. NO means an end to total globalism to a new EuroAmerican Middle Ages. It means a rupture with the old political order. Just like Syriza couldn't easily sign new cuts if it could it would have. Whoever put semi-industrialised Greece into bed with Germany can be classified as clinically insane.
Currency unions usually implode. The EU is fragmenting at its weakest link Greece-Cyprus.

A YES vote would bring Syriza down banks once more would be shut and new elections would have to occur. This would create more market turmoil which stands around $3trillion losses as we are according to Bloomberg with the biggest losses in China (around 30%).

Just as Syriza was forced into declaring a referendum so it can be forced into a Grexit. Returning to a national currency capital goods and labour controls are the only way to save this situation in the short term unless there is a massive haircut on the Debt giving a bit of a breather to Greece's commitments, again a difficult option for the EU as the question would then open what happens to the €13trillion of EUs debts?

If Syriza doesn't do it others will be found. The history of the Greek nation does not begin and end with Syriza.

Syriza tops have tried to cancel out the Referendum in statements but once the ball was thrown into the air we are locked into a process difficult to reverse.
3rd July 2015
VN Gelis


Postscript


After yesterday's demo where more than 700k  turned up it is clear that none of the existing political formations can impose their will on the Greek people. Unless one believes hungry stomachs can be filled. The rally in Sindagma is more important than the actual Referendum.

a) the rally was full of Greeks. There were no illegal immigrants there. 
b) average working class people from daily life. 
c) everywhere there were Greek flags with communist ones. Absent were all flags of the European union.
d) the size of the rally just in Athens indicates a big OXI vote in the cities. It's a class vote based on those devastated by austerity.
E) Syriza will have problems turning any OXI vote against the numbers seen at the rally.







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